On 2 November 2026, NeuroFusion and Torchcast AI were the only named teams with a higher preliminary dataset score than RysoAI.
RSO-F scored 65.1 on the Dataset Brier Index across 246 resolved questions. It placed above Google DeepMind’s blue croc at 65.0 and fire hedgehog at 64.8, as well as the listed entries from OpenAI and Anthropic.
| Team / model provider | Model | Entry rank | Dataset index | 95% interval | Questions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NeuroFusion | simple ensemble 3 | 2 | 67.7 | [65.3, 70.5] | 246 |
| Torchcast AI | beagle-nano | 4 | 66.5 | [64.5, 68.7] | 246 |
| Ryso AI | RSO Harrier | 18 | 65.1 | [62.9, 67.4] | 246 |
| Google DeepMind | blue croc | 19 | 65.0 | [63.8, 66.3] | 723 |
| Google DeepMind | fire hedgehog | 22 | 64.8 | [63.5, 66.3] | 723 |
| ForecastBench / OpenAI | gpt-5.5-2026-04-23-high-web-search | 58 | 63.2 | [62.3, 64.1] | 1462 |
| ForecastBench / Anthropic | claude-opus-5-5-high-web-search-128k | 99 | 62.4 | [61.5, 63.3] | 688 |
Selected comparisons, not the complete leaderboard. Provider and submitting team are distinguished for ForecastBench-run entries. Higher index is better. Source: ForecastBench, CC BY-SA 4.0. CC BY-SA 4.0
Ahead of a former leader
Google DeepMind’s fire hedgehog led the tournament on 28 September. On 2 November, RSO-F scored above it when both were measured on resolved dataset questions.
The tournament also scores prediction-market questions. RSO-F’s lead over fire hedgehog was on the dataset comparison.
Reading the result
Third among named teams counts each team once, using its highest-scoring entry. The full leaderboard also includes anonymous submissions and multiple configurations from the same team. RSO-F’s entry rank in that table is 18th out of 616.
ForecastBench adjusts for differences in question difficulty. RSO-F’s 95% confidence interval was 62.9 to 67.4, overlapping those of the DeepMind entries.
7 November update
In the revised preliminary table, RSO-F scored 64.5 on 246 questions, fifth among named teams and joint 24th among all 616 entries. The table above preserves the 2 November result. We will report RSO-F’s tournament result separately.