RysoAI put the Navier-Stokes market at 98% four days before it resolved Yes

On 13 September 2026, two of our forecasting configurations assigned about 98% probability to a YES resolution on Manifold’s question about whether Navier-Stokes would be considered solved by 3 June 2027. Four days later, the market resolved YES.

The median forecast across the 113 eligible entries in the same ForecastBench round was approximately 32%. Our entries, listed as Frost and Linen, both recorded 97.82%.

The question being forecast

The market asked whether mathematicians would broadly consider the problem solved by its deadline. ForecastBench used the market’s resolution as the outcome to predict. On 17 September, the creator resolved it YES, stating that mathematicians widely agreed the proof was valid.

OpenAI announced its result on 8 September. Five days later, our models had to judge whether the proof would win broad acceptance by the market’s deadline.